Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin raised the stakes in his gas conflict with Ukraine by slashing supplies to Europe, a measure that has left some EU states struggling to heat homes in sub-zero temperatures.

What was Putin seeking to achieve by acting in this way? It’s clear to everybody that it is not a commercial dispute. Russia doesn't care what would be the price ($200, 250, 300 or even 450) because this time it has very clear and ambitious political goals:

1. To bring down the government of “orange” President Victor Yushchenko and Yulya Tymoshenko. This is a political revenge for Ukraine's Orange Revolution, Ukraine's plans to join NATO, its support for Georgia during the Russian-Georgian military conflict, the question of the Ukrainian famine of 1932-1933, Russian Black Sea Fleet in Crimea.

2. To bring up a loyal to Russia President and Parliament already in 2009. Loyal candidates for presidency can be Volodymyr Lytvyn or Vyktor Yanukovych.

3. To show to Europe that Ukraine is not a reliable transit country and it is necessary to develop, as soon as possible, alternative transit routes. Russia is using the conflict to gain support for the Nord Stream pipeline and the South Stream pipeline.

4. To distance Ukraine from Europe by destroying Europeans trust in Ukrainian politics, business principles and its leadership.

Most of these goals have already been achieved:

1. Cut off for industrial consumers in Ukraine already destabilized completely weak Ukrainian economy and urged Party of Regions to demand CMU and President to resign. Putin hinted that Ukraine is run by criminals who can't solve economic problems. For Tymoshenko inability to resolve this issue in January may lead to the end of her political career and collapse of her “gas queen” image. Yushchenko’s political position is called to be the main reason of gas war. Thus he will share the drop in popularity with Tymoshenko if Ukraine fails to get a good deal.

2. Lytvyn’s visit to Russia on December 28-29 was more than successful. He met Vladimir Putin and Head of the Duma Gryzlov and sent a message that he was in favor of reviving a proposal to establish a gas consortium between Russia and Ukraine. This spring everything may become clear as this is when Viktor Yanukovych promised to hold parliamentary and presidential elections simultaneously. Party of Regions, Lytvyn’s Block and Communists Party may easily get the majority and form a pro-Russian coalition in a Parliament in case of new elections in spring 2009.

3. Ukraine has lost its credibility as a transit country. Europe didn’t support Ukraine in this fight against Russia and preferred to get the guarantees of supply staying apart from the conflict. Western leaders who have encouraged Ukraine's Euro-Atlantic aspirations would be well-advised now to examine critically the current state of Ukraine's gas sector, its implications for the country's democratic development, and risks for European security before even considering Ukraine's application to join NATO or EU.

4. European Commission president Jose Manuel Barroso has already linked Kiev's long-held hopes of closer EU ties to its credibility as an energy partner. “If Ukraine wants to be closer to the EU, it should not create any problems for gas to come to the EU. It is critically important the supply starts immediately. If not, there will be a real problem of credibility of the supply of Russian gas through Ukraine to the EU," Barroso said. EU capitals have grown disillusioned about Ukraine’s ability to meet EU benchmarks on democracy and the economy amid political instability and bitter rows in the Orange camp.

Taking into account severe economic crisis in Ukraine and complete inability of Ukrainian Government to handle it the scenario of getting Ukraine back to Russian empire looks very realistic. It seems also that European leaders loose this geopolitical fight because of having no idea how disastrous economic and social situation in Ukraine is.

Most of Ukrainian metallurgy and chemical enterprises can be acquired by Russians this year already by using gas weapon. The same is the truth about political leadership and country as a whole. Goodbye forever Europe?